Yao Yang on Project Syndicate about the issues emerging when comparing China’s and US’ economies in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Complex concepts, tough explained so neatly. Enjoy it!
Belusconi’s empire in Italy seems at its end. In mayors’ elections, his party (PDL) lost a symbol of the Italian right wing, Milan, the Italian economic capital (PM’s home town, too!). The end of an era, maybe. However, nothing can erase the fact that he ruled Italy for almost 2 decades, influencing with his conflict of interest and numerous charges, his verbal violence and his populism. Berlusconi is one among the cause of Italian decadence nowadays, but it was the effect of the of the empty spaces left from politics in the 90s. Now, a new approach is necessary. Politics has to find its lost nobility in Italy (perhaps, not only in Italy), without spirit of revenge or deafness towards opponents’ reasons, though building a dialectic and democratic dialogue, based on shared principles, written in our Constitution.
Before starting my Nicaraguan experience, dreams of glory flooded my ego. Reviewing all my studies on data collection, I knew it would have been a priority to collect data from households survey as fast as possible. Because interviewing the first household of the community today and the last one in 6-months time means introducing a significant source of bias in the research, especially in rural economies subject to seasonality. However, I’m realising that I was naive. Because we’re just two interviewers, because I didn’t consider my stomach could have left me in my room for one entire week, because I go to and from the community using my stick, not my jeep. In other words, because I’m not the World Bank, nor Indiana Jones. To sum up, my goal is to have enough large control group to match with the treatment of the households who participate to a micro credit scheme – the ‘Small Business Program. I have two possibilities: surrendering to the extended collection time bias or opting for a second best solution. I’m trying to move toward the second option. In parallel with the community survey, I’m working with students of a technical high school to assess the program Education That Pays For Itself, run by the English NGO, Teach A Man To Fish. Among the NGO’s outcomes of interests, there is the socioeconomic condition of the students’ families. Hence, I’ training the students to interview their families (belonging to other communities though), in order to increase quickly the treatment group. Therefore, I can focus my interviews in the community on treatment group mainly, shortening the data collection timing, and getting information on students’ families. The assumption is that from the students’ families, coming from rural background in Nicaragua, a PSM approach will allow me to select part of my control group. I fancy to better solutions…
P.S. Edgar, I know you’re thinking about the horse!
After carrying out and attending several interviews, questions are arising in me about the vulnerability section. Vulnerability – considered in my study “the magnitude of the threat of future poverty” (Calvo and Dercon 2005, p.5) – is a complex concept, indeed enriching a poverty profile.
A man who was shot in an armed robbery 3 months ago, told me his level of worry for being assaulted in the future is very low, a woman who hasn’t been assaulted in the last 5 years, stated is extremely worried of being assaulted in the future.
Now, let’s put apart probabilistic calculations and think in a mere qualitative way, how do we compare their different levels of perceived vulnerability to assaults? Measuring the poverty ex-ante, a real challenge. Literature on this issue is warmly welcomed, I need a reliable vulnerability index…
IS MORTALITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES PROCYCLICAL? HEALTH PRODUCTION AND THE VALUE OF TIME IN COLOMBIA’S COFFEE-GROWING REGIONS (Miller and Urdinola, 2007) is a paper testing the hypothesis of countercyclical infant mortality in poor coffee crops area in rural Colombia, i.e. the mortality rate being decreasing during economic growth. That is to say, during economic upturns (high coffee price), coffee growers would have a higher propensity to focus on their children’s health conditions due to higher disposable income. Meanwhile, during economic downturns (low coffee price), poor coffee growers would give priority to other expenditures than the ones put towards their children’s health status – due to consumption smoothing mechanisms. However, the authors find evidence of procyclical infant mortality rate. Namely, the mortality rate increases during positive economic shocks (high coffee price), when the coffee growers are supposed to have more resources they can assign to health care. In developed countries, too, evidences suggest that mortality rate is procyclical. This could be explained by three main factors, holding during economic upturns:
- Increasing consumption of harmful normal goods like tobacco and alcohol (Miller and Urdinola, 2007)
- Increasing pollutant emissions and higher traffic fatality rates (ibid.)
- Increasing opportunity cost of time (ibid.)
The Colombian context – where the rates of tobacco and alcohol addition are supposed to be close to zero among infants and the geographic and environmental features make pollution and traffic an minor problem – suggests reasons 1. and 2. cannot hold. On the other hand, factor 3., the increased opportunity cost of time, looks plausible.
Jinotega department in Nicaragua is a coffee-growing region. Yesterday I was interviewing a household’s head and, at the question whether he was worried by bad health conditions of him or a family member, he complined about the waste of time for going to the health center. Did he read Miller and Urdinola, too?
Don’t hesitate to tell me I make things too simple!
“The United Nations’ top human rights official called on the US on Tuesday to give the UN details about bin Laden’s killing and said that all counter-terrorism operations must respect international law” (Al Jazeera today)
Did USA – again – and Obama loose the occasion to show the world they are a great country indeed, and to keep the distance from the Bush-Era?